valuation and share price targets, page-2

Redfaces

After much anticipation here it is fresh from the US this morning.

I'm happy to answer any questions behind the assumptions.

The model itself has been prepared by a close friend of mine who's quite a respectable analyst in New York with a major global bank so I'm happy with its veracity.

The beauty of Genera is that it can be valued on a PE (good for the Oz market). One would take the 1st full year of sales (ie. FY10) here and capitalise the NPAT.

My mate in the US has taken a fairly conservative approach and tax affected the earnings at 30% even though Genera most probably wouldn't have to pay tax in the 1st few years.

In short it values Genera at a 4 bagger versus the IPO issue price of $0.50 just off the Sonic relationship. This will not happen overnight but I imagine in early 2009 after IUO sales have commenced this is a fairly good indication of where the market will be when it 'does the numbers'

http://www.geocities.com/diagnosticdeca/Genera_Biosystems_Valuation.pdf

cheers

PS...my mate said that if this company was in the US market considering the growth of the whole molecular diagnostics area an analyst would more likely apply a PE of 40 to 45x against its 1st year of profitability!