RedfacesAfter much anticipation here it is fresh from the US...

Redfaces

After much anticipation here it is fresh from the US this morning.

I'm happy to answer any questions behind the assumptions.

The model itself has been prepared by a close friend of mine who's quite a respectable analyst in New York with a major global bank so I'm happy with its veracity.

The beauty of Genera is that it can be valued on a PE (good for the Oz market). One would take the 1st full year of sales (ie. FY10) here and capitalise the NPAT.

My mate in the US has taken a fairly conservative approach and tax affected the earnings at 30% even though Genera most probably wouldn't have to pay tax in the 1st few years.

In short it values Genera at a 4 bagger versus the IPO issue price of $0.50 just off the Sonic relationship. This will not happen overnight but I imagine in early 2009 after IUO sales have commenced this is a fairly good indication of where the market will be when it 'does the numbers'

http://www.geocities.com/diagnosticdeca/Genera_Biosystems_Valuation.pdf

cheers

PS...my mate said that if this company was in the US market considering the growth of the whole molecular diagnostics area an analyst would more likely apply a PE of 40 to 45x against its 1st year of profitability!