Valuation and Timelines

Interested to hear what others think -

VALUATION
maybe I'm dreaming but when I see ppl posting about a T/O at 1.5B, I think that that would be an absolute steal.

Even if we were to take a smaller piece of the market at 1.5B / year, solely for DurAVR then a purchase price of 1.5B seems far too low/lacks any multiples. This doesn't even take into consideration other potential pipelines using the same valve or ADAPT - ViV, Mitral etc.

My best guess is $3B MINIMUM, however, $5B is more accurate IMHO- like I said, interested to hear from others.


TIMING
The DurAVR results have been quite remarkable to date - for me this reintroduces the Breakthrough Device designation possibility.

It's around a 90-100 day turnaround with the FDA, if approved DurAVR would receive marketing authorization (ability to sell to market outside of research/trial). I believe Anteris will apply for this using the EFS 30 day data (and include data from ViV Canada potentially). They have mountains of data on the ADAPT material and they now have 1yr+ data for in human.
The product provides significant improvement over available options.

The FDA nor Anteris need to publicly disclose if the designation request is submitted.

The majors will be currently weighing up if the data is good enough for the FDA to approve the designation, which will influence the timing and value of their bids. Obviously Anteris coming to market with DurAVR in 2024 would increase the price substantially.

Exciting early 2024 - couple weeks till the EFS readout. I am nor parting with shares regardless of the options outstanding - I'm buying - and as Wayne hinted in his recent Proactive presentation - things really start to speed up after the 30 day EFS readout (If I recall correctly he indicated 12 months ago that the EFS data was relevant for companies looking that may be evaluating Anteris).

Thats how I see it - As people always say - Not Advice and Do Your Own Research.

Let me know your thoughts.