A quick comparison of the before and after. I stress that this...

A quick comparison of the before and after. I stress that this valuation only gauges the PERs, and as such doesn't fairly take into account BCI's healthy cash position prior to the 4.5Mtpa FMG deal. Nor does it accurately show the risk associated with BCI's new debt levels. Read the 35 page presentation released through the ASX on 10/12/12 for further information please. A Net Asset Value (NAV) would probably have been better than a PER, but BCI has already done a Enterprise Value (EV) which is very simular to a NAV. The EV is shown on page 11 of the 35 page presentation as mentioned above.

NOT MEANT AS FINANCIAL ADVICE. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.

BEFORE:

103.9M shares
$80.9M cash
$19.3M debt
2.5Mtpa production

AFTER:

119.4M shares
$54.2M/$58.3M cash (depending on book building I think)
$143.4M debt
4.5Mtpa production

ASSUMPTIONS:
- Bonnie Fines 57% or 0.92 of CFR62
- Shipping $8t
- Native title 1.3%
- WA royalties for fine ore, 6.5%
- Marketing (FMG) 3.2%
- Opex ~ $45t.
MRRT ~ BCI has publically stated that they will most likely have a zero MRRT obligation for FY13.
-CFR62, USD$115.
- Exchange rate, 1.025.
- Admin, Amort & Depreciation, $1.5t
- Cash and Debt Interest, 6%

BEFORE:

USD$115t (CFR62)/1.025 (exchange) = AUD$112.2t
$112.2t * 0.92 (BCI 57% Fe) = $103.2t
$103.2t minus $8t (freight) = $95.2t
$95.2t minus $45t (opex) = $50.2t
$50.2t minus $3.3t (royalties) = $46.9t
$46.9t minus $2.1t (native & marketing) = $44.8t
$44.8t minus $1.5t (AA&D) = $43.3t
$43.3t plus $1.9t (interest on cash) = $45.2t
$45.2t minus 30% (company tax) = $31.64t
$31.64t times 2,500,000t = $79.1M ~ NPAT
BCI 103.9M shares.
Unexercised options shouldn't be included in a EPS calculation,
Earnings Per Share ~76 cents per share.
Current SP = $2.93
$2.93/ 76 cents = PER 3.67

AFTER:

USD$115t (CFR62)/1.025 (exchange) = AUD$112.2t
$112.2t * 0.92 (BCI 57% Fe) = $103.2t
$103.2t minus $8t (freight) = $95.2t
$95.2t minus $45t (opex) = $50.2t
$50.2t minus $3.3t (royalties) = $46.9t
$46.9t minus $2.1t (native & marketing) = $44.8t
$44.8t minus $1.5t (AA&D) = $43.3t
$43.3t minus $1.2t (cash/debt interest adjusted) = $42.1t
$42.1t minus 30% (company tax) = $29.47t
$29.47t times 4,500,000t = $132.615M ~NPAT
BCI 119.4M shares.
Unexercised options shouldn't be included in a EPS calculation,
Earnings Per Share ~ $1.11 per share.
Current SP = $2.93
$2.93/$1.11 = PER 2.64

PLEASE DYOR