This is my estimate that I may intend to use for my SMSF...

This is my estimate that I may intend to use for my SMSF valuation. please provide your thoughts

modelling a dilutive M&A scenario,where:

• The company uses 80% of its $333M cash (i.e. $266.4M)
• The remaining 20% cash ($66.6M) stays on the balance sheet
• The target is a Tier 1 hard rock lithium project (pre-FID)
• The M&A is funded 80% with cash + 20% with new shares (dilution event)

Step-by-StepDilutive M&A Valuation (Ex-Dividend)

Step 1:M&A Funding Breakdown

	Source	Amount (AUD)	Notes
1	Cash (80%)	$266.4M	From existing $333M
2	New shares (20%)	$66.6M equivalent	Dilution occurs
3	Total deal size	$333M	Implied valuation of lithium project

Step 2:Estimate Dilution from Share Issue

Let’s assume new shares are issued at $0.25/share(private deal valuation).

New shares issued=66.6M0.25=266.4 million shares\text{Newshares issued} = \frac{66.6M}{0.25} = 266.4\ \text{million shares}

	Metric	Value
1	Original SOI	1,204,000,000
2	New shares	266,400,000
3	Post-M&A SOI	1,470,400,000
4	Dilution	~18.1%

Step 3:Lithium Asset Value in New Structure

Assume:

• Lithium project fair value = full $333M
• Apply a 30% discount (pre-FID, country risk, project uncertainty)
• Adjusted value = $233.1M

233.1M1.4704B shares=$0.1585/share

Step 4:Other Assets (Cash + Royalty)

A. Remaining Cash

66.6M÷1.4704B=$0.0453/share

B. Royalty Asset (no change)

• DCF value: $28.6M
• Per share (diluted):

28.6M÷1.4704B=$0.0194/share

TotalUndiscounted Value Per Share

	Component	Value/Share (AUD)
1	Lithium Project (discounted)	$0.1585
2	Cash (post-M&A)	$0.0453
3	Royalty Asset	$0.0194
4	Total (undiscounted)	$0.2232

Step 5: Apply Delisting Discount (15%–20%)

	Discount	Value/Share
1	15%	$0.2232 × 0.85 = $0.1897
2	20%	$0.2232 × 0.80 = $0.1786

FinalValuation Summary – Dilutive M&A, 80% Cash Funded

	Scenario	Value/Share (AUD)
1	Undiscounted	$0.223
2	With 15% delisting discount	$0.190
3	With 20% delisting discount	$0.179

KeyTakeaways

• Using 80% cash and issuing shares at $0.25 adds ~18% dilution
• Project adds value, but the dilution offsets much of the upside
• Final fair value = $0.179–$0.190/share, assuming conservative inputs