CTP (ASX) Valuation Estimate

CTP

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3.92%

5.3¢ central petroleum limited

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TopSahara

8,232 Posts.

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24/08/24

15:02

Post #: 75356144
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Originally posted by numeraire: ↑

Gents, your missing the point on this one.

The trade is the east coast gas squeeze. Its a story that not only RC believes, but also the ACCC, COAG and now MCQ.

Fortunately CTP is the leveraged play for this. Run the sensitivity analysis over the numbers and you'll get the feel.

MCQ wont be bidding much as the economics aren't there yet. No pipeline is available today, no COAG agreement on backhaul rates has been made, no short squeeze in gas prices and little certainty on the resource under the plethora of unexplored permits owned by CTP.

You'd only be a buyer of CTP if you believe all these things will come to fruition. RC certainly does and MCQ as well.

The only reason why there arent more believers, and the share price higher, is because too many have been burnt on this stock.

The overhang of wounded longs has the market heavily offered. The comments in this and other recent forums are littered with the hopes of parity. Its destroyed any opportunity for the stock to run, or of the company to use equity financing to position itself better than it is today.

Even with the MCQ floor of 17.5 we still have no risk takers. Its for this reason why CTP will be seriously searching for partners. The overhang is holding them back.

So please, no more talk on what you want to sell at. Take a big breath and double down - MCQ are certainly going to if you dont.

Expand

Have a look at what your SP was when you was pumping this back then, (15c)) now look at what it is today, now you tell me what’s the trouble with this mob.

Originally posted by numeraire: ↑

Gents, your missing the point on this one.

The trade is the east coast gas squeeze. Its a story that not only RC believes, but also the ACCC, COAG and now MCQ.

Fortunately CTP is the leveraged play for this. Run the sensitivity analysis over the numbers and you'll get the feel.

MCQ wont be bidding much as the economics aren't there yet. No pipeline is available today, no COAG agreement on backhaul rates has been made, no short squeeze in gas prices and little certainty on the resource under the plethora of unexplored permits owned by CTP.

You'd only be a buyer of CTP if you believe all these things will come to fruition. RC certainly does and MCQ as well.

The only reason why there arent more believers, and the share price higher, is because too many have been burnt on this stock.

The overhang of wounded longs has the market heavily offered. The comments in this and other recent forums are littered with the hopes of parity. Its destroyed any opportunity for the stock to run, or of the company to use equity financing to position itself better than it is today.

Even with the MCQ floor of 17.5 we still have no risk takers. Its for this reason why CTP will be seriously searching for partners. The overhang is holding them back.

So please, no more talk on what you want to sell at. Take a big breath and double down - MCQ are certainly going to if you dont.

Expand

CTP Price at posting: 5.5¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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Last 5.3¢		Change 0.002(3.92%)		Mkt cap ! $37.74M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
5.3¢	5.3¢	5.3¢	$954	18.00K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	221259	5.3¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
5.7¢	68920	2

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	480788	0.052
1	422516	0.051
1	100000	0.050
2	365000	0.049
2	36452	0.048

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.053	13500	2
0.058	982500	6
0.059	519508	2
0.060	90909	1
0.062	180000	2

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