Ok, Psi81, but I like to throw in a little optimism [which got...

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bobham

80 Posts.

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24/11/16

13:12

Post #: 20856488
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Originally posted by psi81 ↑

Actual 2P reserves is 130 PJ, not 175. The 175 figure comes from the old gross JV reserves prior to the March Mereenie upgrade, of which CTP only had 115.

This whole topic has been discussed here, after the Mac offer was announced:

http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-trading-halt.3033350/page-3#post-20595296

Probably don't need to discuss it in detail again without new information.

The net margin may be $2+/GJ as Bobham says but in terms of NPV per GJ I've almost never seen a gas project with a full cycle NPV of $2/GJ or higher. Discount factor tends to thump you because your capex is all up front but your revenue is spread out over years.

As I said in the other thread, for the actual developed 2P, if CTP can connect to a high price east coast gas market with regulated pipeline tariffs, the NPV may be north of $1.50/GJ because it'll be high margin with basically no capex required to get it, but all the growth prospects will require capex and also need a risk factor on top of that. Overall 50c seems reasonable fair value for CTP IMO.

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Ok, Psi81, but I like to throw in a little optimism [which got me to 'well north of 50c']. And aren't there mothballed holes in Mereenie that flowed once worthless gas? Do these need a big capex? There is quite a bit we do not know, including the seismic results from the joint venture. The oil is not often mentioned, and CTP has some outside the joint venture do they not? Creeping up to ...well.....55c+. But yes, we could do with some development capital.

Always value your input.

CTP Price at posting: 18.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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