valuation for cdu not possible

Alright, this is going to be a bit of long post, but I think it's a worthwhile issue to address.

If you scan posts on HotCopper, every now and then, you can be assured someone will ask the question : 'What's CDU worth? What's the share price target for this share based on valuations on its mines?'

For me, like many questions in life, this is one of the 'unaswerable' questions. It's like someone asking what their 5 year old kid will be like when they're 25. Or what Earth will look like 100 years from now.

There's no way anyone can know the answers to these questions because there's simply too many variables that are still unknown or are random and unpredictable.

In the case of CDU, a valuation for the share price involves knowing what the company profits will be. When the company hasn't even finished exploring, let alone begin mining, this is a big ask.

Between now and successful, profitable mining, many, many unknowns stand in the way. How effectively can the ore be processed? How easy is it to mine the ore?

Will the management make any mistakes? They could make a mistake financially, for example by issuing equity too cheaply, diluting current shareholders or perhaps make a mistake operationally.

Are there any environmental issues? Earlier this week, a mining project in Queensland had to be canceled because the government environmental department imposed hefty restrictions on the project to protect local environment.

Will there be any unexpected geology? Plenty of mines have had problems where the ore they dug up wasn't as rich as what investors were told.

How will commodity prices behave? A downturn in the developing economies will affect prices badly.

Will the taxation regime change? The government may decide to impose extra taxes on mining profits.

Will financial problems arise once mining begins? Some mines had to be shutdown following the GFC because of credit issues.

Exchange rates? Overall Australian sharemarket/economy performance? Inflation? Interest rates?

Any one of these questions and its associated variable will affect the value of the share, in most cases significantly. Yet many of these are unknowns - they cannot be known - and they will stay that way for some time.

So, for me, the whole exercise of coming up with per share valuations is an illusion of certainty. I'm having trouble seeing it as possible, the ability to know what a spec miner's share (like CDU) is worth now . Anyone who claims to know what each CDU share is worth now - whether it's $5 or 50c - is talking rubbish.

Does anyone else see it the same way I do? Appreciate any thoughts!