Valuation for PPK?, page-141

Have pondered the valuation question for a while. I agree with both arguments that the company has both good prospects but no current meaningful cashflow.

(for those who aren't aware - most seem to be - PPK is the hub company, with the others (LIS, soon to be WGL) being the spokes. PPK, as a previous mining-focused entity and perhaps other initiatives, has been around - and listed - since 1995. So I actually like the compartmentalisation and probably a good indicator of PPK's long term viability, or at least it's own 'stop-loss' facility (bad choice of words here) because they shouldn't have a high cash burn. LIS on the other hand, is committing to meaningful ongoing expenses, so the clock is ticking here).

Breaking down the last 12 months of share price movements:

Small spike to ~$6 11 Mar 2021.
Run from ~$6 (25 Mar 2021) to $13/14 (end may 2021).
Plateau End May 2021 - mid Aug 2021 (~$13/14).
Rise 11 Aug 2021 - 14 Sep 2021 to ~$21
Decline subsequent...

A 'valuation' (ignoring cash-flow) could be the following:
Current valuation = Pre-hype (LIS) start price + LIS Value add + Other perceived value adds (e.g. WGL and other initiatives).

But what to use as the pre hype start price? One could use $5.50 (from around end of March 2021)
And assuming PPK owns ~291 million LIS shares (= ~ $282M = ($282 M / 89.3M shares of PPK) = $3.15 of LIS value add to each share).
+ new opportunities? (incl WGL) lets call it 10% of the opportunity that LIS was (=31 c per PPK Share)

You end up with 5.50 + 3.15 + 31c = $ 8.96 per share of current value per PPK share. But this number is dropping every day. If LIS is a bust, you're back to % $ 5.81 really quickly. And as LIS is burning cash, it'll keep dropping.

I ending up buying a modest amount (and will top up small packets of PPK) as the price keeps falling. I have no illusions that these ventures may never make significant money, but saw PPK as a survivor, so maybe I'll lose 40% of my PPK $$$ over the next 3-4 years but saw this opportunity as one of the more promising ones (and Australian!). The very small amount I have in LIS is seen as 100% total risk.

The biggest threat I see to LIS's technical success is the effect of vibration (road vibration / air vibration) and hot/cold cycles on batteries long term survival. You need to do a bunch of testing (in Vibe machines) (are the BNNT layers in the battery susceptible to breaking via this vibration?), but if they can:
1. prove that the battery 'fails safe' and/or
2. can show only mild (or negligible) degradation with the application of transport vibration,
they may just have something big. (and then it's gotta be cost effective )

As usual, do your own research. Happy for the velociraptors to tear the above to shreds...