Have pondered the valuation question for a while. I agree with both arguments that the company has both good prospects but no current meaningful cashflow.
(for those who aren't aware - most seem to be - PPK is the hub company, with the others (LIS, soon to be WGL) being the spokes. PPK, as a previous mining-focused entity and perhaps other initiatives, has been around - and listed - since 1995. So I actually like the compartmentalisation and probably a good indicator of PPK's long term viability, or at least it's own 'stop-loss' facility (bad choice of words here) because they shouldn't have a high cash burn. LIS on the other hand, is committing to meaningful ongoing expenses, so the clock is ticking here).
Breaking down the last 12 months of share price movements:
Small spike to ~$6 11 Mar 2021.
Run from ~$6 (25 Mar 2021) to $13/14 (end may 2021).
Plateau End May 2021 - mid Aug 2021 (~$13/14).
Rise 11 Aug 2021 - 14 Sep 2021 to ~$21
Decline subsequent...
A 'valuation' (ignoring cash-flow) could be the following:
Current valuation = Pre-hype (LIS) start price + LIS Value add + Other perceived value adds (e.g. WGL and other initiatives).
But what to use as the pre hype start price? One could use $5.50 (from around end of March 2021)
And assuming PPK owns ~291 million LIS shares (= ~ $282M = ($282 M / 89.3M shares of PPK) = $3.15 of LIS value add to each share).
+ new opportunities? (incl WGL) lets call it 10% of the opportunity that LIS was (=31 c per PPK Share)
You end up with 5.50 + 3.15 + 31c = $ 8.96 per share of current value per PPK share. But this number is dropping every day. If LIS is a bust, you're back to % $ 5.81 really quickly. And as LIS is burning cash, it'll keep dropping.
I ending up buying a modest amount (and will top up small packets of PPK) as the price keeps falling. I have no illusions that these ventures may never make significant money, but saw PPK as a survivor, so maybe I'll lose 40% of my PPK $$$ over the next 3-4 years but saw this opportunity as one of the more promising ones (and Australian!). The very small amount I have in LIS is seen as 100% total risk.
The biggest threat I see to LIS's technical success is the effect of vibration (road vibration / air vibration) and hot/cold cycles on batteries long term survival. You need to do a bunch of testing (in Vibe machines) (are the BNNT layers in the battery susceptible to breaking via this vibration?), but if they can:
1. prove that the battery 'fails safe' and/or
2. can show only mild (or negligible) degradation with the application of transport vibration,
they may just have something big. (and then it's gotta be cost effective )
As usual, do your own research. Happy for the velociraptors to tear the above to shreds...
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- Valuation for PPK?
Have pondered the valuation question for a while. I agree with...
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 1 more message in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add PPK (ASX) to my watchlist
(20min delay)
|
|||||
Last
41.5¢ |
Change
-0.015(3.49%) |
Mkt cap ! $37.68M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
46.0¢ | 48.0¢ | 41.5¢ | $72.38K | 160.4K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 939 | 41.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
42.0¢ | 289 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 939 | 0.415 |
1 | 17073 | 0.410 |
1 | 15000 | 0.405 |
3 | 82000 | 0.400 |
1 | 40000 | 0.395 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.420 | 289 | 1 |
0.430 | 15000 | 1 |
0.440 | 16402 | 1 |
0.450 | 25000 | 1 |
0.460 | 2325 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 04/10/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
CC9
Chariot Corporation (ASX:CC9) refines Black Mountain strategy, launching Pilot Mine to seize U.S. lithium opportunity
PPK (ASX) Chart |