Whynot, understand what you have said. Although I think it is...

Whynot, understand what you have said. Although I think it is kind of fun doing the excercise, there are so many variables...it was requested by steini. So I did some simple calcs.

Many many things need to be considered. On the downside, as you've mentioned, declining flow rates, dusters, general market shocks (GFC 2?), oil prices dropping (back to $80 halves those profits), increasing costs etc etc.

On the upside, Oil prices rising (eg. oil at $150/barrel doubles profits again!), but most of all a maturing business which can be generation $100M+++ in profit - can borrow large sums, invest/buyout others and leverage shareholder returns. Most organic growth for SSN can come from cashflow alone if all goes well.

The only thing really stopping SSN is the economic viability of getting the oil out of the ground. ie if oil drops to $40/barrel for a significant amount of time, we are probably screwed. I'll leave it to you ponder the possibility and what needs to occur for that to happen.

At the end of the day, taking a measured approach is prudent however no point working with todays variables when tomorrows variables are so unknown.

There can be only 3 outcomes from my simplistic 5yr prediction.
1. Im spot on. You beauty, I told you so!
2. Im over. Bet ya we still have a great return.
3. Im under. What size yacht should I buy?