First things first TT .. Great analysis and research to put...

First things first TT .. Great analysis and research to put those inconsistencies into the light of day.

Couple of things ...
1. Who knows what assumptions Morgans are making ... their analyst should disclose why they are different

2. Mar 2018 vs Ma 2019 ... SEA line of defense would be simply "current D&C suggests ....". That would not be good enough though as a proper explanation should be provided. Rocks don't change their properties in a year. Was their due diligence making the acquisition up to scratch. That large a variance needs explaining ... worst case this is an impairment waiting to happen!

3. I can sort of understand the Q4/Q1/Q2 progression ... I don't think it would look all that bad if you did TTM periods which smooths out the variances in the QoQ periods. It's been messy with the go slow into Q1, the curtailment due to unavailable capacity and then the higher GOR ratio.

There needs to be thorough explanation of results and forward guidance on the basis of results. If you're not getting a response, ask on the earnings call .... using the reference material.


LONE filed their 10Q for Q2. Worth a read. Not all that pretty balance sheet wise (fair loss on sale of acreage).
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1661920/000166192019000075/lone6301910q.htm

Some reference points perhaps
"Grew production by 22% compared to the second quarter of 2018, averaging 13,630 BOE per day versus 11,140 BOE per day."
Have to dig in to see oil% which came in at 57%

"Adjusted EBITDAX for 2Q19 of $33.5 million compared to $29.2 million for 2Q18. This improvement was driven by a 22% increase in production, partially offset by a 2% increase in unit cash operating expenses." ... how's SEA going to do?

No FCF this year for LONE. However they did feel strong enough (based on hedging) to increase forward guidance. My bolding to highlight the "decline curve battle" where they believe they are winning and can produce same amount with few wells (i.e. less maintenance capital) and therefore achieve FCF.
"Lonestar has materially enhanced its financial outlook. For 2019, production guidance was increased from 13,700-14,700 BOE/d to 14,800-15,000 BOE/d, and guides to $135-$140 million of EBITDAX. For 2020, Lonestar now believes it can achieve its previously issued production target of 17,000-18,300 BOE/d while drilling 20-25% fewer wells in 2020, and therefore, materially less capital. Lonestar's 2020 target yields a range of cash flow outcomes that generates $5-$20 million of free cash flow."


Hmmm. We shall see. IMO they are drilling a fairly gassy area in the "Sooner" acreage.