AGM 0.00% $1.60 australian governance & ethical index fund

valuation is 80c for now with pe 5 pon 30k

  1. 1,201 Posts.
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    when you buy you have to assign a realistic long term price to your pricing model!

    Even if you bought at PON $50K and expected PON to go to $60K or $65K, you had to know that at some point in your long term investment horizon, the PON was liable to drop a little!

    Thus EPS will be affected and the Price of the stock will change.

    Ill put this out there: I reckon PON will settle around $30-$35K per tonne in the medium term.

    I worked out that EPS was apprx 16cps with a price of ni at $30,000

    Avg PE until production or until RAMP UP I reckon will be 5 or 6 max

    thus the valuation I give and which I cannot escape is 80-90cents for AGM

    I pretty much said 80cents a few months back and was attacked from all angles.

    you cant escape the fundamentals guys and fundamentals say to me 80-90cents for now.

    Given that SENTIMENT is BAD atm , then valuation the market gives will deviate below this figure of 80-90cents.

    I assign 80-90cents as a mean avg price valuation given the fundamentals at least till production or ramp up.

    If SENTIMENT gets better, then the valuation in short-term can rise above 80-90cents for me.

    Sentiment bad now, so I wouldnt be surprised if price can drop below the 80-90cent bad by a little, but it WONT stay there long!

    this of course is ALL according to MY analysis, but I stand by my valuation of 80-90cents till proddy/ramp up.

    thus anything below this range FOR ME is a topping up opp as you cant escape the fundamentals

    long term itll be fine - theyll ramp up production and then ill give them a PE closer to 10 rather than closer to 5 given the long mine life.

    for now 80-90cents in a conservative sense for me.
 
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