hi all i have been following this stock since it listed. Some...

hi all

i have been following this stock since it listed.

Some things make no sense. This market is too over heated and there are many other examples, not just MPL. but MPL is a clear standout for over valuation.

@ $2.00 its fy15 p/e is 21.5X. Thats a high p/e which implies growth. Its prospectus shows broadly flat EPS growth in fy15.

@ $2.60 its fy15 p/e balloons to 28X. Thats not expensive, its just ridiculous. That implies growth rate of at least 20% per annum for a few years, which it has not been achieving.

It also has risks -reliant on govt to approve premium increases, and loss of key defence contract which could happen in fy16.

i struggle to understand why investors pay 28X earnings for a company without any growth prospects. Ageing population will increase claims expenses, and wont benefit this coy.

The fair value is around the IPO retail price. How long can the investors keep paying up for this story, its the greater 'fool' theory..