Hi JCoure,
I would also have the same general reservations about NHF.
But , if we take their earnings as a guide[p/e around 21?], that would suggest that the valuation on MPL might be stretched.
It is interesting that NHF's earnings growth over the past 3 years hasn't been spectactular.
Their push into older customers will produce[in fact probably already has] an increase in premium income, but I wonder whether that might come back to bite them in the next few years with a worsening of their claims ratio.
Is the modest increase in profit built on that change in their focus? And hence, perhaps not sustainable?
The other factor I mentioned briefly in my previous post was investment income, I'm not sure that the ability to make money in the present low yield environment on investing the premium income wont be constrained.
And that did represent 20mill from memory.
cheers
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