@theoc, @valueaddThe valuation calculated by @Jov88 (brilliant...

@theoc, @valueadd

The valuation calculated by @Jov88 (brilliant work by the way, as was yesterday's paper), is not done on a "hope" basis. The P in rNPV is for "present", ie, this is the calculated value of IMU today, not on what it may be worth or is hoped to be worth in the future.

@Jov88 has provided assumptions as to how he/she has calculated IMU's worth of $1.33/share today. As we can all see, the market values IMU today at 11.5 - 12 cps. The difference is not based on today's valuation compared to some future / potential valuation. Its based on the different assumptions being made by the market and Jov.

As Jov points out, the risk factors applied (80/65/65) is the main contributor to the valuation difference. The references cited show that 93% of Phase 3 trials fail for a combination of failure to show efficacy / safety concerns / lack of funding. Interestingly, if you apply this risk factor (ie 7/7/7) to Jov's cashflow figures, you arrive at a valuation for IMU of 12cps.

Probable that the true rNPV lies somewhere in between, which is why these boards are crying out for medicos + statisticians who could hopefully guide us to the most appropriate risk-factors to apply ...