Amazing work with the valuations Jov!cant help but get the...

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Moobangs

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30/05/21

00:25

Post #: 53513147
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Originally posted by Jov88: ↑

Yea I I have run numbers already with a few new assumptions, but there’s heavy weight towards HER-Vaxx given when revenue is expected. So it’s sensible to wait until final results for the phase 2 are announced.

I have run the model being more exhaustive with CF33 and CF33 CD19 but the numbers are a bit silly (to the upside).

In due course, with final data for HER-Vaxx, PD1-Vaxx third cohort data and approval of clinical trials for CF33, I’ll post a more complete valuation.

CF33 CD19 has added decent value to the MC recently, but I still feel the market has still left HER-Vaxx especially and PD1-Vaxx significantly under valued. If HER-Vaxx final results come back in line with interim, PD1 will immediately increase in PV given its the same science, irrespective of where the clinical trials are at. Albeit, not as much as HER-Vaxx due to the discount effect and PD1 revenue being a few more years in the future.

But who knows, if efficacy and safety is excellent, we may see FDA give us early green light with breakthrough therapy designation for both HER-Vaxx and PD1-Vaxx. Merck applied and got IND approval for Keytruda (originally they had shelved it and weren’t going to pursue commercialisation) in 2011 and received breakthrough designation in 2013 and 2014 for fast tracked. It was selling in 2015. Efficacy was there, safety not (subsequently, this year I believe FDA rejected keytruda for lung cancer patients because of its safety profile) and it still went to market in less than 5 years from a standing start.

I don’t expect many people care to research to this level, or spend time dot joining, but when you do, it means you get buy stocks before you really run and as importantly, have enough conviction to invest enough to get major returns.

In my opinion, getting bags is less about knowing which stocks to hold and more about knowing enough about them to hold them for long term.

IMO DYOR

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Amazing work with the valuations Jov!

cant help but get the feeling there will be many people in years to come reading though HC IMU threads such as yours wishing they where a fly on the wall when this all went down.

Like you I have also ran projected valuations on just her vaxx and PD-1 vaxx B cell products alone and come to a similar figure.....it’s when you add the same forecast models on CF33 & CD19 that the mind really starts to boggle at its price potential.

IMU Price at posting: 45.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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