I have put together a valuation model for the company based on ATC and intergrease (excluding all the other goodies in development), please note that this model is only for entertainment purposes only.
You may access the model here: http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3518901/Avexa_DRAFT_17022010%20%28version%201%29.xlsm
Model features / traps: Only attempt to enter data into the assumptions sheet the variables you may change are in blue text Model fails to take into account any mile stone payments by any potential partners (I would love to add these In if I had some research to suggest when and how much these would be) Expense calculation is rather simplistic it does not account for movements in R&D, rather it recognizes them on a straight line basis over time No terminal value for ATC or intergrease how long will these drugs maintain market share for? Cash flow statement is prepared using the assumption that it is equal to p/l (which will causes immaterial timing issues) The WACC in this case is only made up of cost of equity - this is accurate, however it is difficult to obtain accurate risk premiums (I pulled these off a RBS research report on the Avexa website). It is important to note that If the risk premium was reduced (say by a partnership being successfully entered), the WACC and in turn the valuation will increase significantly Only tested on Microsoft office 2007 Feel free to send any constructive comments to d.g.walker at hotmail.com
For those that are adventures, I would like some input on the inputs in the assumptions tab, any suggestions on what the blue variables should be?
Thanks all and enjoy
AVX Price at posting:
13.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
