Below is a post very long term and large holder of EXT from...

Below is a post very long term and large holder of EXT from another site, who graciously offered that this could be posted elsewhere:

"Whilst we are on the subject of valuation and, given time, realising that valuation. It's probably time we had a quick look at the fundamental valuation once again.

A key variable in valuing the share price is the in-the-ground value of the Uranium. If you look at this recent (August 2009) link:

http://www.uraniumresources.com/URRE%2008....pt%20-FINAL.pdf

You will find statements like this on page 2:

"...the most reliable metric for valuing uranium companies has been the value of pounds in the ground."

"numbers ... published every week by UBS in their Uranium Sector Update. It generates this metric by taking a publicly-traded uranium company�s enterprise value and dividing it by that company�s uranium reserves plus measured and indicated resources"

"There are 30 companies on the UBS list that are broken down into six producing companies and 24 exploration companies."

"The six producing companies, which includes Cameco, ERA, Paladin, Uranium One, Denison, and First Uranium, the average enterprise value per pound in the ground as of July 17, 2009, was $10.60."

"The average for the 24 exploration companies ... is $12 per pound."

Well, I dunno, let's be pessimistic, let's say US$10/lb, no let's be more pessimistic, let's say US$9/lb. I wouldn't want to be accused of trying to ramp the stock, you know how people get smile.gif

So at US$9/lb what do we get? Well we need to establish some other variables first. What is the US/Aus exchange rate? At the moment it is 0.87 but let's be pessimistic again and use 0.9

We also need to know how many shares on issue. I believe the figure is circa 242 million but please correct me if I am wrong.

Finally we need to know how many pounds in the ground. Note that we are not taking account of grade. EXT grades are extraordinary for an Alaskite hosted resource with many other Namibian explorers struggling to average 200 ppm and others closer to 100 ppm. EXT is of course averaging somewhere around 450 ppm but, like I said, no need to guild the lily is there?

So using a very basic formula US$9/lb X no.pounds / No.Shares / ExchRate = SharePrice we get the following figures:

270 Mill lbs (last statement) = $11.16
350 Mill lbs = $14.46
400 Mill lbs (roughly what BB calculated as the current resource) = $16.53
500 Mill lbs (Where we will be by May/June) = $20.66
1 Bill lbs (just for fun smile.gif ) = $41.32

Given time the share price will gravitate towards these figures. In the meantime it will drive the short termers crazy with frustration or orgasmic with sudden rises, for the long-termers it will just be BAU.

p.s. I made these same calculations back in early 2009 when the share price was somewhere around $2 or so. Since then we have hit a high of $11.45 but at the time of posting I was attacked from all sides by the usual assortment of ... well you know what happens when you make a forecast, the worst examples of humanity come out of the woodwork. Happily, one can only assume they never bought the stock smile.gif

Pls feel free to distribute these calculations elsewhere and maybe someone, somewhere, will take note and make a few bucks on this stock.

I just wanted to close this lengthy post by saying that in a lifetime of chance, EXT was the chance of a lifetime, it has changed lives."