Good comments. I love the Interest rate and inflation chat...

Good comments. I love the Interest rate and inflation chat though. 6 months ago we were looking at maybe a couple of rate hikes in 2022, but probably no more than 4 by the end of 2023, then as recently we were going to get one every month until Christmas (up to 2.5% increase in the RBA cash rate)... That has fizzled out pretty quickly and we have seen 10yr treasuries in Aus and the US tightening, in part due to flight to safety, but also because the macro indicators are showing the economies are falling over in a hurry but inflation is persisting.... Interest rates wont be needed to pull inflation down over the next 12 - 18 months, business conditions and sentiment will do that on its own IMHO.... Of course these will be fuelled by a few more rate cuts that are not needed and we will overshoot the wrong way.. Monetary policy always overshoots as the target they are trying to hit is often 1 to 3 months old... we didnt need our last cut so the rasie was always coming.

And there I am off on a rant. Good chat.

back to some context, the cost of a basket of a basket of goods wont go down, but the basket size of the middle and lower income family will.. So what do we get stagflation... High inflation but no economic growth.... Higher income earners on the other hand not so much of a change in habits on daily shopping... they still buy their fancy wine and whisky, and dine at the fancy restaurants... they will delay buying the new car before they drop the whisky, and they will probably buy more whisky as they feel sorry for themselves that they couldn't get the car.... Thats just my take.