Valuation of Lark and stock-holdings, page-32

Yes LRK is a growth stock, no one is questioning that..

Can local sales fall, yep sure (they did in March). Will total sales fall in the future, nope, they are going up, that's why its a growth story and why I'm invested.

I couldn't care if less if local sales fall 50% as long as they can sell everything they can produce without discounting to the rest of the world it.

Why am I confident on the story,

1. increasing levels of inventory coming into maturity so they will have the stock to sell.
2. Their current sales run rate is based on circa 24m people (Australia).. This target market has just increased by 1.4b with the commencement of sales into China...

To put this into context 2022 spirit sales in aus are forecast to be $4.1b USD ($5.5 AUD). China forecast to be $157b USD (209b AUD). that is, Lark has circa 0.37% of the Aussie spirits market... ($20m on $5,500m 2022 forecast sales)... If Lark could get 0.037% of the Chinese spirit market (so 1/10th of the penetration that they have achieved in Aus) that would be circa $77.5m AUD of sales.... But they don't even have enough whisky to support that level of sales until 2024... So plenty of time to build the China business to a point where the are obtaining what, 3.7c of sales in every $100... Seems achievable to me...