Growth will be dependant on gaining significant penetration into international markets, combined with ongoing brand recognition in Australia and retail sales margin.
The stated return per litre will drop if there is a large percentage of product sold offshore. If you can research the discount applied to distributor, and wholesale level, you will likely be quite surprised at what those discounts will do the the average sales price.
However, to achieve a significant position in the world whisky market, this is the price the company will need to pay.
Absolutely the best sale is atfull retail, which can only occur direct to a small group of customers that visit the distillery. Every other sale reduces the margin significantly that the business receives. It starts to become a volume game.
There will be a period of ongoing investment, both in infrastructure, which at 13 Million is, only in my opinion, likely to be short by 100%, or so, with building materials, contractors, and timeframes increasing dramatically, and then the necessary deals to achieve the overseas market penetration to actually sell the volume of production that Lark will have.
I believe this company will do well, and will in all likelihood, receive a takeover offer from one of the big conglomerates, but there is, in my opinion, at least 3 to 5 years of investment required before this is likely.
Compare it to the Lasdonde curve in mining stocks, and you will get my gist. We all know the good news about Lark. There is now a period of hard work, ongoing capital investment and market development, as the whisky under bond increases, with a 5 year maturation until saleable,
I believe you will see the take over offer that keeps getting mentioned in this and other forums, but not until the infrastructure is complete and commissioned, and an ability to supply a minimum quantity for product per annum is proven.
Great product, great story, great potential. Be prepared to bunker down and do the hard yards for a while now.
Please research anything I have said as this is only one persons opinion.
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