The article is on point to highlight that value at maturation. I...

The article is on point to highlight that value at maturation. I have written about this before, that I think that figure is a furphy and ought not be used in any materials or valuation. It's essentially counting the profits from tomorrow on today's balance sheet as an asset.

However, one ought not use the figure in the corporate accounts either, as these are based on cost of production (essentially the inputs, and exclusive of any value-add by Lark). So referencing "those figures cannot be found in the corporate accounts" alluding to some sort of fraud or conspiracy is a load of bullocks, and poor journalism. According to the accounting rules, they are obliged only to report on the cost at the time of production and not the current valuation. This is the same for Treasury Wine Estate's that has north of $1bn of aged Penfolds at around $40 per bottle.

The valuation I prefer to use is liquidation (pun intended). If they were to liquidate their whiskey in barrels today, what would it fetch on the market? And they do provide this information in their corporate materials but not corporate accounts. So NSR of $216/l is the actual price they achieved in FY21, and they are forecasting this to increase by 10-15% in FY22 as they market new ranges and what not. One may question whether this NSR is sustainable as they scale into export markets, but it is a fact they achieved it last year. And then essentially from that $216/l NSR for whiskey at maturity today, one can discount it for future years. For example, whiskey that will be ready next year is reportedly worth $175/l today if it was liquidated, down to $51/l for whiskey that won't be ready until 2026.

I previously shared my analysis, but here is my base case on valuations using liquidation value for those interested (slightly dated, sorry)