Thanks. DM me on Fintwit and happy to share notes.
My base case for FY26 is 2.75m litres of whiskey on hand, selling 438k litres at maturation, and a liquidation value of $490m.
I can understand why you think it's conservative, but I think the 1ml p/a production facility at Pontville won't scale up straight away. They'd destroy their brand value and marketing if they did that. But if you assume it is a 1m p/a facility, and noting it may take 4-5yrs for full operations because of the time to mature the whisky, and noting it is being commissioned say end of 2023. Well, if they started operations at 100% capacity from day 1, by June 2026 they would have 2.5m litres in whisky barrels.
Bear in mind they are currently operating around 100k litres p/a below currency capacity with the Pontville acquisition. If you presume they hit full capacity today, they would have around 2.3m litres of whisky in barrels in June 2026. So the most optimistic figure I can get to is 4.8m (2.5m + 2.3m) - but my expectation is that the first couple of years of New Pontville will be 100-200k p/a as they scale up. So to be fair, I am happy to be conservative with a 4-5year outlook.
LRK Price at posting:
$3.85 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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