The answer to that is more wells were drilled to firm up a resource. ENI had a 200m net gas pay at Mamba & its appraisal wells which got the Chinese interested, just like Anadarko with its 50-60m net pay got 3 Indian firms interested. Message there is, prove it and they'll come.
As for Fan-1, what they have found needs to b appraised thoroughly. U need to understand where the 2500 mmbbls-P10 came from. The answer is most of that sits in the deeper fan called
Beer.
Beer alone runs for
37kms NE-SW, so to derisk the entire prospect or part of it & give the story more wings they need additional drilling, flowrates, cores, confirm the OWC up/down dip etc etc.
I've attached a map showing this & used the rig cords from Marinetraffic to show the apprx future well loc's.
The gross OIIP breakdown for Fan-1 is as follows (pls refer Feb'13 preso),
North Canyon: P90-83, P50-304, P10-848 mmbbls
Beer: P90-175, P50: 632, P10: 1666 mmbbls
Total: 258-936-2514 mmbbls (gross OIIP)
Apply
15% as FAR's net share for the OIIP & then a recvr factor of
20% for starters.
Depending on what the future wells showup with the net thickness, poro/perm etc they can factor in a higher recovery rate (with water injectors etc).
It was interesting to see Cairn come up with the 250-900-2500 mmbbls in their announcement. Stacked fans sounds promising as they could b on to something interesting at Fan, with future appraisal drilling required. Furthermore the VSP data helps in fine tuning the obvious signature of the HC bearing sands.
So factor in atleast 2 firm wells 4.5kms from Fan-1 & then a few more to test the continuity (OWC or HC's) at Beer which means start at the extreme points & narrow done the target. They could also acquire more 3D data, b4 drilling. And then there's the Central Fan, worth a crack.
Just my thoughts for now. More interested in what Mitsubishi r paying Anadarko for the 20% stake in Cote'Divorie. We already know about Kosmos farming to the north of FAR's blocks.
(20min delay)