"What factors could cause MAK to 'fail' or dramatically...

"What factors could cause MAK to 'fail' or dramatically undershoot current expectations?"

The Phosphate price is pretty much the only real negative that could arise causing it to fail. Anything else are just minor hiccups.

Is it a bubble? $400 might be a bit of an overshoot but really I can't see it as a bubble. As Scotney says - China has a big proportion of the world's reserves (37%) but have just wacked a 135% export tariff on it meaning effectively they have stopped exporting. Thats a massive chunk of world supply that just went offline. Add to that worldwide food shortages, massive demand acceleration from China/ India, biofuels etc and there is no way the price will be back at $50 ever again.

Yes there's a big project in Saudi coming on line but its still a drop in the ocean (maybe 2% of forecast demand). Morocco/West Sahara is the other big source but is becoming more politically unstable by the day. What happens if it gets really bad over there? Where would that leave prices?

Like Wilson said - MAK has a breakeven figure of $100. Even if it halves back to $200 they're still in the money.