Whilst SPA is in the middle of its Black Friday sales cycle until 6 December the question I am thinking about is what is a fair valuation for SPA assuming their current cash flows are sustainable and PAM (as lead debt provider) is in for the longer term upside on their $5 mill. facility.
With latest published ARR revenues sitting at $10m (rounding accepted) current SP of $.18 is a little over 1* ARR with 62 mill. shares on issue.
The valuation would need to increase to $37m for the unlisted SPAZZ 60c Options to be in the money by 29 December 2024. Q2FY25 may lift the ARR somewhat but there would need to be a re-rating of SPA to 4* ARR. Unlikely I hear you say.
The valuation would need to increase to $22m for the listed SPADE 35c Options to be in the money. This is a more realistic 2* current ARR but without a significant increase in ARR by June 2025 the SPADE Options are going to require a re-rating of the revenue multiple to be in the money.
These are my thoughts. What are yours?
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