valuation +some thoughts on recent presentatn

Hi all

just spending some time digesting the information from the recent uranium conference. pretty expensive for people to attend $990 per person

just wondering if cmonaussie, galileo, swissboy , tonyfarr etc long term holders are still out there.

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this is a post done by cmonaussie on 4 april 2011 which i find really handy regarding one aspect on valuation for BLR


"What I am saying is that relying on "valuation information" based upon 2007 data is dangerous because many things have changed, like price of U3O8, #shares issued etc.

As was pointed out Mkt cap is also an appropriate metric for comparision.

BLR, being a non-producer, an implied in-ground valuation can be calculated using some simple models that seem to be commonly used and you can tweak them as you see fit.

JORC Measured Resource = $6/lb
JORC Indicated Resource = $3/lb
JORC Inferred Resource = $1lb

You could even add Exploration target at 50c/lb"

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CURRENT MKT CAP = $26,581,749 (@3.6c)

Based on page 10 of recent presentation at the uranium conference we have 2 simple valuations:

First , mike haynes has put forward the simple EV/lb of 15c based on a share of 3c.

1.
based on the 750ppm cut off we have
20.5 mil lb indicated x $3/lb = $61 mil
23.3 mil lb inferred x $1/lb = $23.3 mil
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total est value = $84.3 mil

based on 738 mil shares on issues , we should get 11c per share.

2.
based on 250ppm cutt off we have
39.7 mil lb indicated x $3/lb = $119.1 mil
51.2 mil lb inferred x $1/lb = 51.2
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total est value = $ 170.3 mil market cap

= 23 c per share valuation

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so are we looking at a 3-5 bagger from here at 3.6c ???



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However to make things a bit more realistic, there are cash and shares etc pending issue for the 100% hansen acquisition , as mentioned on page 7 of the presentation.

$2mill worth of cash and $3.5 million worth of shares

lets say/assume at 3.5c per share average, we get 100 mill shares extra issued on top of the 738 million

at 7 c we get 50 mill extra shares

so at a the 750ppm cut off point calculation we get
$84.3 mill / 838 mil shares = 10 c per share OR
if divided by extra 50 + 738 = 788 = 10.7c per share

at 250ppm cut off
$170.3 mill / 838 mill = 20.3 c per share
if divided by 788 = 21.6 c per share


So what do you guys think? i am happy to be corrected as usual.

we havent included the Jonesville coal mine = 130mill ton of JORC x current spot price of about $120 / ton = 15,600 mill worth inground and if we take only 1% we get another $156 million worth.

BUT THIS A TOPIC FOR DEBATE AS THERE ARE SOME ISSUES REGARDING PERMIT. NONE OF THE HOLDERS HAVE ANY CLUE SO FAR, WELL THE ONE THAT HAS POSTED ON HC. WE SHALL SEE HOW MIKE HAYNES WILL REALISE THE VALUE FOR THIS ONE.

ALL I CAN SAY IS THAT BLR IS STILL WAY WAY UNDERVALUED!!!

HEY SWISSBOY, IS THE CLUB STILL ON DURING THE AGM THIS YEAR. ??


PS: the yankees better get the QE3 out or else fukushima will just be like a walk in a park. what do i know...??