“I think you will find in the years to come there will be plenty...

“I think you will find in the years to come there will be plenty of fund managers that outperform the S&P, because the gravitational weight of passive index funds is becoming too great”

“Year 2022 has been characterized by cyclicals, unloved for so long, especially energy. Does MFG funds have any exposure? NOPE.So another year of under performance coming”

Interesting. I agree with what you’re saying here. MFG have got it badly wrong these past couple of years but this unshakable belief some people have that passive funds are the only way to go (and that stock pickers are banished to history) is a flawed one.

The more the worlds wealth gets rolled into passive funds ….with a similar spread of stocks…..with similar weightings….the greater the opportunities for stock picker funds to make a comeback. There will always be investors who are willing to take on some risk to beat the indexes.

As you say - energy has been the place to be in 2022. MFG might have missed that boat (of course) but so have most passive funds with their generic and conservatively small weightings in energy. Meanwhile the stock pickers who backed energy heavily have knocked it out of the park. If these same funds pivot and back the next winning sector in 2023 their inflows will really get going…..until they back the wrong horse in 2024 LOL

I agree that over the long term passive funds are hard to beat ….but there will always be stock picker funds that short term outperform them…..and there will always be investors backing themselves to get their timing right jumping in and out.