My thesis is based on 40 plus years of behavioral finance...

My thesis is based on 40 plus years of behavioral finance observations.

When people lose money (including institutions) they pull their funds out.

Not rocket science.

Am not for a minute suggesting the future of markets is a known quantity, but "don't fight the FED" for 20 years of easing down to ZIRP drove markets up. The FED is now on a mission to eradicate inflation Volker style (not A Burns). IMO this inflection point is irreversible and will lead markets down for a protracted period.

Under these conditions, active managers finally get a chance to employ risk managed positions rather than fight with the brainless flow of moey into rules based algorithms.

We can only know the outcome in a few years, so following pips over the next days, weeks or months is of absolutely no interest to me. I am an active investor who has done OK over the years. Just saying.

Hope this clarifies my position for anyone who may be interested (or not).