More intelligence in this title than most posts on CCC put together.
Great word in 'execution risk'.
The upside isnt as great as some pie in the sky company with coking coal in the middle of nowhere, the margins arent as high either. BUT the execution risk is very low for CCC.
From my reading of DT his whole career has been operations based in SA so he knows the landscape.
I think your valuation is 'fair', if you wanted to be a real prick you could even use some discount for the supposed sovereign risk of SA.
Even doing that you would find that if CCC continues to make good business decisions and their drilling plan goes well you'll be looking at alot of upside.
From my reading, Vlaakplats looks likely to be open cast with KORES so a BFS study should quickly value add to that asset.
Botswana doesnt need much of a resource to be worth more than 20million once the drilling program is completed. The chances of GEMECS getting it correct and us getting 1BT+ is more likely than them estimating incorrectly. It could happen however, hence this company is a specciy.
Again the big assumption is financing. Its one thing for a CEO to say 'yeah we have the funding' but its another thing to ACTUALLY PROVE IT in a legal document placed on the ASX.
I'm still overweight in this stock but remain cautious until we see the project pipeline with funding presented for penumbra.
Supposedly it is meant to be soon, but again, words from management are just words. I want to see actions.
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