BCI bci minerals limited

valuation

  1. 1,569 Posts.
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    This is my attempt for 2011, I wasn't sure how exactly the project financing with the un-named Hong Kong company works. If it is Money up front for off-take, does that incur an interest bill? So I haven't allowed any interest payment for Capex :-

    ASSUMPTIONS:-
    USD/AUD = 89 cents
    5% Premium to Yandi fines(Benchmark)
    Benchmark US 97 cents - To rise 20% Early 2010
    Operating Expenses AUD $42
    BCI = 50% of 3Mtpa
    BCI = 57% Fe

    US 97 cents + 20% = 116.4
    116.4 + 5% = 122.22
    US 122.22 / 0.89 = AUD 137.33
    BCI fines @ 57% Fe = $78.2 per tonne
    $78.28 - $42 = $36.28 FOB
    $36.28 times 1.5M = $54,420,000 REVENUE
    $54,420,000 plus interest (2.8M) = $57,220,000
    $57,220,000 minus depn + amort (2.1M) = $55,120,000
    $55,120,000 minus admin (1M) = $54,120,000
    EBIT $54.12M minus 30% (TAX) = $37.884M
    NPAT = $37.884M divided by 83,711,000(sh) = $0.4526
    Earnings Per Share = 45.26 cents


    The considered value of a non-speculative, producing mine is a PE Ratio of 10. Therefore my valuation is 45.26 cents times 10 which equals -

    $4.53 for 2011.

    Assuming at least a 20% increase in the benchmark early 2010.

 
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Last
34.0¢
Change
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Mkt cap ! $981.7M
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35.0¢ 35.0¢ 33.0¢ $119.0K 350.6K

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Price($) Vol. No.
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