This is my attempt for 2011, I wasn't sure how exactly the...

This is my attempt for 2011, I wasn't sure how exactly the project financing with the un-named Hong Kong company works. If it is Money up front for off-take, does that incur an interest bill? So I haven't allowed any interest payment for Capex :-

ASSUMPTIONS:-
USD/AUD = 89 cents
5% Premium to Yandi fines(Benchmark)
Benchmark US 97 cents - To rise 20% Early 2010
Operating Expenses AUD $42
BCI = 50% of 3Mtpa
BCI = 57% Fe

US 97 cents + 20% = 116.4
116.4 + 5% = 122.22
US 122.22 / 0.89 = AUD 137.33
BCI fines @ 57% Fe = $78.2 per tonne
$78.28 - $42 = $36.28 FOB
$36.28 times 1.5M = $54,420,000 REVENUE
$54,420,000 plus interest (2.8M) = $57,220,000
$57,220,000 minus depn + amort (2.1M) = $55,120,000
$55,120,000 minus admin (1M) = $54,120,000
EBIT $54.12M minus 30% (TAX) = $37.884M
NPAT = $37.884M divided by 83,711,000(sh) = $0.4526
Earnings Per Share = 45.26 cents


The considered value of a non-speculative, producing mine is a PE Ratio of 10. Therefore my valuation is 45.26 cents times 10 which equals -

$4.53 for 2011.

Assuming at least a 20% increase in the benchmark early 2010.