ELE 0.00% 0.5¢ elmore ltd

I know that there are a few traders out there and new...

  1. 47 Posts.
    I know that there are a few traders out there and new shareholders who have bought in at higher prices than the current and they are concerned that the stock isn't moving ahead in leaps and bounds, but I can't understand the level of negativity in this thread because the shipping date has slipped and they're having to truck their first shipment.

    Lets try not to lose sight of the big picture.

    We're talking about a company who 12 months ago had nothing but an idea to go out and acquire some iron ore mines and a share price of half a cent. They have now secured two mines and started mining at one of them so the hard part is done. There is $7M in the bank, so paying bills isn't an issue for them. Goode has worked a minor miracle over the last 12 months in my opinion.

    So what if the first shipment is a bit late getting away and transport costs are higher than planned because they need to go by road, its only the first boat load. Rail is in place and available to use once contracts are established - this takes time, but why wait until the contract is in place for rail if you can still make money now by putting the ore on a truck instead? I know I'd be going for cashflow as quickly as possible.

    The title of this thread is Valuation and at one point the discussion got off into the weeds with assumptions about what it costs for Indian truck drivers and diesel etc so heres a couple of other assumptions to throw into the mix:

    The first mine was originally estimated to be 11M tonnes but later downgraded after due diligence. I think the final buy price for mine 1 is now around 6M after renegotiation. So lets 'assume' the mine has only 6M tonnes and lets 'assume' that mine 2 has 4M tonnes to make my maths easier. Spot prices are up pretty high at the moment ($100?) and the original cost of mining estimates from NSL were $33 tonne. 'Assuming' mining costs increase and spot prices come down a profit per tonne of $20 is not unreasonable (and most likely on the low side).

    So 10M tonnes x $20 = $200 million. Maybe this is why they don't seem to have any issues getting the instos to buy in.

    All just my opinions and best guesses, but it is this train of thought that keeps me holding long term.
 
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