valuation

I'm new to HC, but have been reading comments on NKP.
I do all my own research and number crunching.
Here's my view on a long term share price target based on the FS results released to date.
Based on the size of the resource I don't see any reason why they can't eventually produce at a minimum 600,000 oz per year which gives a 50 year mine life assuming only half the current resource is mined. Both are conservative assumptions in my mind. There is no reason production can't be ramped up higher over the longer term with such a large resource as long as they can get the electricity etc required to support it.
The margin is very healthy at well over 50%.
This makes it a first class asset, politics aside.
I believe the margins will improve with PGM prices likely to trend higher.
Assuming they give half of the project away in return for a significant cash injection to pay for initial capital costs of a smaller start up project, then when and if they eventually mine at 600,000 oz per year, they should be earning around $180 million per year net of tax before depreciation for their 300,000 oz share.
Assuming a cashflow multiple of 12 at a conservative PGM basket price of 1200/oz gives a share price target of $3.
Political risk is obviously significant as is the risk that any JV deal is not ideal which may lower the target.
However it seems to me that the risks are far outweighed by the potential upside. I think it will likely take at least 5 years to get there if all goes well but that leaves plenty of upside along the way for those with a shorter timeframe.
I dont know why the Chinese don't make an offer and leave Anglo and XStrata wondering why they didnt move earlier.