hi trader,if AUT had met their production targets, don't you...

hi trader,

if AUT had met their production targets, don't you think they would be shouting about it?

the point I was driving at regarding the EFS, is that long term performance of the average AUT horizontal fracced wells has not been proven yet. Yes, I’m sure some wells will follow a hyperbolic decline, but what about the average well?

Average well performance to date has indicated an exponential decline. I posted a plot a while back (#7565646) which shows the average AUT well condensate performance and you can fit an exponential decline through the data. you can easily generate the same plot – just generate quarterly condensate rates/well and normalise the start time for all the wells, then take the average rates for each quarter.
Condensate accounts for +75% of revenues on average, so this is a reasonable proxy for boe decline

I also posted another plot a while back (#7368405) showing that the end of year well rate would be 3,600-3,800 boepd. This assumes exponential decline of existing wells. The actual ave rate in December was ~ 3,500 boepd. The difference may be accounted for by the loss of production whilst working over some wells during that month.

I don’t think I suggested using a cut off of 150 boepd.

All the best in crystallizing your AUT gains