valuation, page-4

Having a dig around trying to find some gen on Shell's Palta 1 well. Bit of talk on the WHN thread. Both WHN and Cott O&G have interest in the adjacent WA 460 P block that the mapped Palta prospect spills in to.

Have a look at this page.

http://www.cottoilandgas.com.au/wa-460-p/

Salient points:

?Mapped Palta prospect could hold 13.5Tcf
?Shaded area WA 460-P could hold 2.4Tcf

I didn't appreciate that this was such a large prospect. Huge in fact. As I understand it it infers that the palta prospect could contain as much as 11TCF in WA 384 P. All pie in the sky stuff of course but updating my back of the envelope valuation for OXX which has a 1% OOR.
We get
1% oor = 7% interest.
7% of 11TCF = say 700bcf @ 50c thousnd = 350m risked @ 10%
= $35m = around 15cps not the 5 that I had a stab at. Discovery payments would add to this.

So I guess that adds another 10cps to my valuation putting it up around 90 cps on a risked basis.
Ah we can dare to dream!

Looks like Palta 1 will spud in October.