A prospective buyer of the Xstrata stake would certainly want to...

A prospective buyer of the Xstrata stake would certainly want to talk to the JV partner as part of their due diligence, particularly given HIG's priority interest over any sale and also in light of the arbitration currently in effect. Where those discussions could lead is anyone's guess but I wouldn't be surprised to see HIG undertake a partial sell down for a reduced equity input, perhaps even to a free carry a la Ramu...

A prospective buyer could shun the direct approach as you have suggested and just go the back door route through HIG. I'm not entirely sure what they would gain from this, except some negotiated certainty they are not going to be squeezed out at the eleventh hour. It depends on how many buyers are sniffing around...