YOW (ASX) Valuation

Originally posted by Teddyward ↑

Stiffy - seriously I have no link with any institution, market manipulation. The constant conspiracy theory is well off the mark IMO opinion where you target anyone who isn't gushing with confidence and predicting massive profits to all holders. Unlike some posters here who do work for fund managers and brokers or others who choose to be fed and verbatim repeat with little thought promote a brokers opinion not realising the broker knows they post on forums. Some posters do it to show they have more information , one upsmanship, others do it to even out info in market or do it to manipulate a short term trade so they can get a execution. Just be aware that brokers research and valuations are a starting point and behind the scenes different broker divisions are playing their own game or following client instructions and all have goals with different timeframes. You then have the fundamental v's technical market positions which can change quickly depending on the sophistication of the investor and they systems.

It's a market not a conspiracy but we all have ( or chose to have) different levels of information and then make decisions on that information.

IMO you haven't backed up your comments. Quickly keeping a eye on depth and looking at volume and price trades are transacted at I don't see accumulation at all. What I see is a sell down into volume whenever it is available. Forget how it is window dressed and depth manipulation look at the underlying trades. IMO someone has been exiting a position and for proof you could confirm this by looking on the register. I say it is a seller exiting and I have no idea if a single buy is purchasing ( your accumulation theory) but I see downwards price pressure by exiting party. You have to understand that institutions and soph investors have to manage their their way in and out of positions and depth away from the bid and offer is irrelevant and both are using algo robots.

IMO if you start with one bad assumption it leads to a cascade of further bad assumptions so always worth considering reasons on both side of arguments and never in trading or investing in shares stand infront of a moving bus thinking it can't go lower but rather hop on a bus when it is going your direction and have a stop planned.

Problems coming up for YOW. Even if they have a mega next 2 quarters they still have the overhang of court case and they have a massive lot of fixed staff and now advertising expenses for books etc etc all with unknown results in terms of immediate sales to bottom line or building of base to leverage off. IMO there are doubts as the execution of previous things that has not gone as predicted and total sales and margins at the scale they are at have changed from initial and revised predictions. It is a judgement call if you believe new staff and justify their expense and if strategy can support the outgoing and create turnover and lead them to profitability. They stuffed up the short game IMO in the last couple of years by simply not getting market penetration with volume to justify return on their fixed expense base and then they are killing investors by giving themselves IMO excessive rewards for performance that hasn't translated to value for shareholders. Lots of excuses, reasons and explanations but reality is they haven't performed as well as the market was expecting and market price has reduced and the market is a consensus machine and not always very accurate with smallcap companies in areas where large data sets are available to larger investors who can read performance much earlier than small investors. Small investors were over enthusiastic by thinking every extra Yowie would come at a small marginal cost but reality is they haven't got close to economy of scale in volume they initially thought would come on quickly.

Large investors I feel believe they can exit and re-enter later when / if they see YOW strategy working IMO in real numbers ( neilson and industry data ) not just announcements from the company. They can be risk free of the execution risk of YOW not getting their strategy exactly right and also teh court case will be done and dusted then. Management transition will have happened and old investors who had a Loxton hotline will roll out and new investors will come on board who believe in the newer management . The new management aren't green so should have been able to hit the ground running as they have the cash resource to execute any plan however as with all staff coming from very large organisational structures it is a very different world trying to execute and being directly responsible for every aspect in a smaller company and not having a multitude of minions to do all the stuff for you in implementing new ideas and strategy. That is a huge business risk until new staff prove they can execute plan successfully and also communicate that to the market effectively.

Beware of next announcements if not accompanied by not only production, sales and reorder information as it may look like a big number and them finally getting traction but includes stocking for Halloween and Christmas and a poorly worded announcement without enough detail and explanation of next quarter forcasts will be poorly received by the market IMO.

Stiffy - Throw up your thoughts but ease up on attacks on individual posters . No idea what your investment strategy or timeframe is but bringing up constant conflict and conspiracy theories and not backing them up without understanding others investment strategy IMO will not end well and stops people posting information on forums and we have posters here with massive experience in food and specifically confectionery along with others in marketing, advertising and others who understand logistics , distribution and manufacturing. Add to that some very cluey folk who understand social media keep and eye on website stats etc. The combination of all opinions should give us a insight rather than badgered poster going quiet and the rest of us never seeing their opinion.

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I'm fairly confident I've never lumped you in with CEM, nor have I attacked anyone. I focus on CEM because he/she imo has some agenda we don't know about. Kikker, rfc seem to post close to CEM. Seems coordinated at times. Thanks for your insightful post. Probably the most detailed appraisal we've had on here about perspective from within Soph investment circles.

No.	Vol.	Price($)
4	150199	2.3¢

No.

Vol.

Price($)

150199

2.3¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
2.6¢	36875	2

Price($)

Vol.

No.

2.6¢

36875

No.	Vol.	Price($)
4	150199	0.023
1	45499	0.022
2	116114	0.021
1	350000	0.015
1	100000	0.010

No.

Vol.

Price($)

150199

0.023

45499

0.022

116114

0.021

350000

0.015

100000

0.010

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.026	36875	2
0.028	144879	3
0.030	90994	4
0.032	187876	1
0.034	19500	1

Price($)

Vol.

No.

0.026

36875

0.028

144879

0.030

90994

0.032

187876

0.034

19500

(20min delay)
Last 2.3¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $5.275M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
0.0¢	0.0¢	0.0¢	$0	0

Valuation, page-24

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