I agree with your thinking here
@Genovese , that Mustang are actually holding a reasonable amount more cts than that which is being presented at auction....building for next yrs auction. They suggested that full ramp up will not be ready till mid '18, yet they believe they will be auctioning a min of 500k cts twice next yr and the 1st auction will be before mid yr and it has taken longer than 6 months to accumulate the current 405k cts....which is why I suspect this is definitely not the total amount they have.
following on from another poster's comments around American buyers gazumping other buyers at the last GEM auction, my feeling is we won't see a big price run pre auction as there is significant caution around Mustang still....BUT....anything could happen post auction if a large jeweler does some figuring around marketing and if they can get enough inventory then it's worth spending on a big marketing campaign which will generate more demand and retail higher sale prices and increase what they can pay for the raw product....so I'm not expecting much run pre auction but anything could happen post auction so I'd rather be "in" MUS than "out" prior to this result....entirely possible that we could see a break away gap that is never closed.
doing some work around EWP and some of the theories include that one of the waves is extended....given that wave three was only 162% of wave one this this is not considered extended. generally wave 5's are around 23 t0 62% of the move from the base of wave one to the close of wave 3 and 100%(29c) waves 5 is considered extended, but extended wave 5's can occasionally be anything, including 162% (40c), 200% (46c) and beyond....and this would fit right into our FA if the auction results are good (ie big jeweler taking a large chunk for themselves).....and with the graphite JORC falling somewhere in the middle of this.
a post that recently went up on AUZ and I may copy the link across as it was a thought experiment by one of the big merchant banks around what would happen if we switched to 100% EV production tomorrow....increase required over current production levels - lithium 28 fold increase, cobalt 18 fold increase, graphite 5 fold increase.....,
kind regards, SEAH.
