GSW 0.00% 29.0¢ getswift limited

I'd also like to chat about valuation. I did some napkin calcs...

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    I'd also like to chat about valuation. I did some napkin calcs the other day-

    Value of deals- a conservative approach- all transaction values in USD, some figures are fact some are speculation

    NA Williams quoted 1bn transactions in 12-18 months- we'll say 750m in 24 months, we'll also say 12c per transaction
    growth of about 200m transactions from small players growing by 20% yoy for 2 years, quoted at 29c but we'll say 20c average = 288m transactions
    YUM ~200m transactions today at 5% growth PA and 10c transactions = 220.5m
    Amazon- ~600m transactions today and growing exponentially but for conservation sake we'll say a mere 15% of transactions captured in 2 years growing at 25% yoy = 140.6m @ 5c per transaction
    Another tier one firm in the next two years and ramped up in two years 250m @ 5c per transaction

    So in 2 years we have, conservatively per annum,
       750m*.12
    + 288m*.2
    + 220.5m*.1
    + 140.6m*.05
    + 250m*.05

    = 189.18m
    Broker report (Aesir capital) said .68 EBITDA margin, we'll use .58 = 109.73m
    NPAT at 33% tax and depreciation = 73.52m

    in AUD terms (speculating we will be 70 cents in two years) = 105.02
    discount 20% for two years = 67.2m earnings "today"
    Given the application to so many verticals I can see the market applying a hefty PE but I'll leave that blank. But using this calc we are at an 8.6x forward PE. Still a lot of wriggle room in my books especially given the conservation of my calcs.

    *I'm an investing rookie so if this is completely wrong help me out cheers
    Last edited by user66six: 15/12/17
 
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