I'd also like to chat about valuation. I did some napkin calcs the other day-
Value of deals- a conservative approach- all transaction values in USD, some figures are fact some are speculation
NA Williams quoted 1bn transactions in 12-18 months- we'll say 750m in 24 months, we'll also say 12c per transaction
growth of about 200m transactions from small players growing by 20% yoy for 2 years, quoted at 29c but we'll say 20c average = 288m transactions
YUM ~200m transactions today at 5% growth PA and 10c transactions = 220.5m
Amazon- ~600m transactions today and growing exponentially but for conservation sake we'll say a mere 15% of transactions captured in 2 years growing at 25% yoy = 140.6m @ 5c per transaction
Another tier one firm in the next two years and ramped up in two years 250m @ 5c per transaction
So in 2 years we have, conservatively per annum,
750m*.12
+ 288m*.2
+ 220.5m*.1
+ 140.6m*.05
+ 250m*.05
= 189.18m
Broker report (Aesir capital) said .68 EBITDA margin, we'll use .58 = 109.73m
NPAT at 33% tax and depreciation = 73.52m
in AUD terms (speculating we will be 70 cents in two years) = 105.02
discount 20% for two years = 67.2m earnings "today"
Given the application to so many verticals I can see the market applying a hefty PE but I'll leave that blank. But using this calc we are at an 8.6x forward PE. Still a lot of wriggle room in my books especially given the conservation of my calcs.
*I'm an investing rookie so if this is completely wrong help me out cheers
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I'd also like to chat about valuation. I did some napkin calcs...
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