Valuation

I've seen a lot of posts recently that VMT is undervalued or the price is set to take off to x dollars, but none of them seem to get around to even attempting to value VMT. And until you do that you're just speculating on price.

for 1H 2019 VMT sold 6,900 scooters with a gross revenue of $16.9M, CoGS of $13.1M for a gross margin of $3.785M and PBT of $300K
On a per-unit basis that's about $2,440 of revenue and $1,900 of CoGS (up from previous half of $1,500 - possibly due to new model roll-out or shift from lower cost units).

In Q3 sales rose to 6,027 although 1,000 of those were in china, so presumably received a lower margin (to compare, in 1H, less than 1% of total sales were in China, in Q3 it was 20%). I expect Q4 to land somewhere between 5-6,000 units, but the big question is whether it will continue to have a large contribution from China, which will detract from margins, but at the max I would have thought 1,000 units, similar to Q3.

So based on that Revenue for 2H will likely come in around $24-$27 (closer to $20M if they move less than 5K units and/or largely sell in China) and with an upside of perhaps $30M if they can get some big orders shifted in Europe. The big question is what will CoGS look like? If they keep at $1900 like in 1H then gross profit would only be $3-$4M and PBT $0-$1M. If they can get costs back down closer to the 1.5 of 2H 2018 (or 1.45 in 1H 2018) then that PBT figure suddenly jumps to $4-$5M

I think it's unlikely that they will, given where 1H landed; but I expect that the higher costs will be reflected in higher sales prices, so hopefully there'll be a surprise to the upside on revenue.

All in all, I think most likely outcome is a PBT around $1-1.5M for this half (barring any new impairments). Combined with $0.3 in 1H that would put the current price around 35-50x earnings.

Looking at 2020, if they can double sales once again we'd be looking at 35-40k units and revenue of $80-$90M, gross profit $15-20M and if they can keep operating costs in line, a PBT of $10-15M and net profit ~8-12M, putting us on a forward P/E of 5-8x

So for 2019 results, I think we've got a pretty fair price given the growth built in to the business, looking ahead 12 months I can start to see some value at the current price, but anything north of 50c would need some pretty stellar outcomes to justify over the next year or so.