valuation

ngf is cheap as chips

looking at annual report exciting times ahead. i'm expecting $1 in 12 months

let's assume they sell all paddington production at $875 an ounce

cash cost = 501 an ounce

cash margin = $375 an ounce
production = 150,000 ounces
EBIT = $56,250,000

interest = $4,000,000
EBT = $52,250,000
tax = $15,675,000

Net profit after tax = $36,575,000

number of shares = 500m fully diluted

EPS = 7.3 cents per share

current sp = 27
p/e = 3.7

compare that to the overall market which is about 15 times - suggesting a 3x bagger is realistic

don't forget mt morgan. feasibility study due in the next six months, and government approvals due this quarter. this alone will add another 40,000 - 50,000 ounces production.

and also there's talk of doubling production to 300,000 ounces at paddington.

that would give 14.6 cents eps and p/e of 1.8

so $1 in a year is very realistic. i have been soaking up the options, should be a easy 5 bagger.