amb, it really is a little early to put on a valuation price as it currently stands. The real asset that we all know about is North Matanda in Cameroon which although the reserves are stated the fs is still underway. Although good this is not the company maker imo.
The real assets that will be valued by the market is
1)the Niger Delta leases (if granted),
2)Angola oil leases, and
3)the Angola minerals resource.
4) North Matanda Oil (known)
An estimate can only be roughly done on Matanda but I don't think this is the current driver of the sp atm.
By now, probably the only ones to put a value on 1) or 2) are the directors as they would know what leases that they are applying for and should have been through them in some detail.
The extent of the minerals resource won't be known for about 3 months after drilling has been completed and logged.
Conrad Mahr has been working quite through a number of propective oil leases for over a month now to ensure they obtain the best possible bang for the exploration dollar. The negotiations are confidential, and all we know that they are trying to snare a patch in the Niger Delta where it is estimated that up to 10% of world oil reserves are located and are still relatively accessible. The other is the Angola connection and looking at neighbouring fields in the Kwanza Basin, this could well be a company maker on its own. They have been advised verbally that they will be granted an oil lease in Angola but yet to be signed off.
Unfortunately this leaves us in a position that we can't yet quantify what the MC should be exactly....however.....
I don't think that you will need to wait too long before you (and the rest of the market) are able to put this into perspective and like most things, valuation confirmation means probably lower entry risk in exchange for a higher entry price.
So far management have kept the market well informed and have deilvered on there promises to date. At such an early stage, management is what we are currently investing in, If they deliver just one of 1,2 or 3 then the sp will be valued at multiples of the current price.
Therefore my advice for what it's worth is buy or hold if you think management can deliver on 1, 2 or 3 out of the four projects.
Sell, reduce (or don't buy) if you think management can't deliver anything.
Add to My Watchlist
What is My Watchlist?