My understanding of the housing market at this stage : - the main element is the low level of supply since Sept/Oct 22 (declining by around 25 % to 30 % yoy), not due to investors, but to owner-occupiers, - demand is also decreasing, but progressively recovering, driven both by high end properties and first home buyers. Investors demand remains weak.
The 2 main elements why I see this rebound as more than a one off : - house prices have stabilised (from February in Sydney) without a significant impact of interest rates or government policies, - the improvement is not driven by speculative demand (investors) but by a real demand (owner occupiers). Auction clearance in Sydney and Melbourne have also regularly rebounded since bottoming in July 22.
I expect the level of mortgage delinquencies to increase. But it should remain manageable based on the elements we have so far (as RBA indicated this week, a lot of fixed rate mortgages have already matured, without any major difference with variable rate mortgages).
