NIC

1.88%

81.5¢ nickel industries limited

Valuation, page-275

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AnDy62

3,352 Posts.

117

04/12/21

15:16

Post #: 58072790

Originally posted by AnDy62: ↑
Some will remember I posted this analysis during 2020 before the prospective Angel Nickel (ANI) acquisition.

The info I've taken from the presentation to Macquarie in May 2021. Of course, since production from ANI is not expected to commence until Q32022 this is a 'prospective' valuation. It also largely ignores the nickel matte aspect of production, which is I understand may close the payability ratio (from circa 85% - conservatively used in the analysis, to 1).

With a final instalment to pay off on ANI the shares on issue may increase further, which would reduce the valuation per share, but not majorly.

Inputs

1
ER 0.78
2
SP $1.08
3
Nickel price (US/ton) $18,300
4

5

6
Mine New
7 Hengjaya Nickel RKEF Project (HNI) Ownership 80%
8 Ranger Nickel RKEF Project (RNI) Ownership 80%
9 ANI Project (ANI) Ownership 80%
10

11 Hengjaya Nickel RKEF Project (HNI) Production (tonnes) 17,280
12 Ranger Nickel RKEF Project (RNI) Production (tonnes) 17,280
13 ANI Project (ANI) Production (tonnes) 36,000
14

15
Nickel price ($US, tonne) 18,300
16
Cash cost ($US, tonne) 8,650
17
Payability 85%
18
EBITDA margin (/tonne) 6,905
19

20 Hengjaya Nickel RKEF Project (HNI) EBITDA 119,318,400
21 Ranger Nickel RKEF Project (RNI) EBITDA 119,318,400
22 ANI Project (ANI) EBITDA 248,580,000
23
Total ($US) 487,216,800
24

25 Number of shares NIC 2,531,200,000
26 EBITDA/share ($ US) NIC 0.192
27 US:AUD
1.82
28 EBITDA/share ($ A)
0.247
29 Price $1.08
30

31 PE* (EBITDA)
4.38
32 Estimated fair value PE
10.00
33 Estimated fair value price
$2.47

Now, this analysis doesn't include corporate tax due to the concessionary period still having circa 5 years to run, say 4 years when we churn out the cash at double the volumes. Management will surely look to increase dividends, perhaps significantly, during this period. My person opinion is that the nickel price is also set to move over US$20,000 by the end of the year.

Good luck to all holders, especially those who have weathered this slow H1 of the year. I think the patience will be rewarded.

Have a good long weekend and as always DYOR.
Expand
Interesting revisiting this post in June as we approach the end of the year.

Price then: $1.08 (Ni: US$18,300t)

Speculated patience would be rewarded and Ni price would end the year over 20k.

Current price: $1.41 (+2c dividend paid), Ni price just over US$20k.

Return: 31% capital gain + dividend (6 months).

Happy days. NIC made my portfolio's 2020, has come good in 2021 - bring on 2022! Should be another big one imo.

NIC Price at posting: $1.41 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held

4 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Last 81.5¢		Change 0.015(1.88%)		Mkt cap ! $3.428B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
81.5¢	82.0¢	77.5¢	$5.529M	6.910M

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
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Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.820	279037	49
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Valuation, page-275

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	Inputs
1		ER	0.78
2		SP	$1.08
3		Nickel price (US/ton)	$18,300
4
5
6		Mine	New
7	Hengjaya Nickel RKEF Project (HNI)	Ownership	80%
8	Ranger Nickel RKEF Project (RNI)	Ownership	80%
9	ANI Project (ANI)	Ownership	80%
10
11	Hengjaya Nickel RKEF Project (HNI)	Production (tonnes)	17,280
12	Ranger Nickel RKEF Project (RNI)	Production (tonnes)	17,280
13	ANI Project (ANI)	Production (tonnes)	36,000
14
15		Nickel price ($US, tonne)	18,300
16		Cash cost ($US, tonne)	8,650
17		Payability	85%
18		EBITDA margin (/tonne)	6,905
19
20	Hengjaya Nickel RKEF Project (HNI)	EBITDA	119,318,400
21	Ranger Nickel RKEF Project (RNI)	EBITDA	119,318,400
22	ANI Project (ANI)	EBITDA	248,580,000
23		Total ($US)	487,216,800
24
25	Number of shares	NIC	2,531,200,000
26	EBITDA/share ($ US)	NIC	0.192
27	US:AUD		1.82
28	EBITDA/share ($ A)		0.247
29	Price	$1.08
30
31	PE* (EBITDA)		4.38
32	Estimated fair value PE		10.00
33	Estimated fair value price		$2.47

Valuation, page-275

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Alkane Resources hit 57.2Kozpa gold production through FY24 – and eyeing 70Ktpa in FY26

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