Valuation, page-5

Hello
The growth profile certainly looks promising and I agree, my personal view is that dividend will be close to 12-15 cents a share by 2023. A number of things to watch out for which I think have effected the stock price of late.
1. Increase costs - mostly related to coal price, coal price continues to rally and will stay above 110 for the balance of the year I think
2. Transfer Pricing - of nickel ore in Indonesia is now pegged to the LME Price of Nickel, that also has the chance of increasing costs. A higher LME price for nickel is not ideal for Nickel Mines, as their finished product is NPI. NPI tracks LME price but the correlation can have some decent swings.
3. The Mine - should be far more profitable with this transfer pricing structure in place.
4. The change of two of the RKEF lines to produce Nickel Matte creates a little bit of uncertainty. Until this process is proven (Tsingshan would not do it if it wasn't) then likely we may see some weaker quarters with mild production delays in Q3.
5. Q42020 was 72mn EBITDA, Q1 2021 was 50mn EBITDA, Q2 2021 will be similar I would think maybe a little better. If this run rate continues and Angel comes online (I think it will be earlier that Q3 2022 (more like Q2) then +350mn-400mn USD EBITDA per year post Angel is on the cards for sure.

Thanks