If the policy is 25% of FCF is a rule thats NOT flexible , then please explain why 10c was paid in Dec and 10c was paid in March?
Obviously they don't adhere to the 25% policy at all times.
On current pellet pricing and expected shipping for the half year, then a 4c divi is what it will be with a 25% dividend policy.
The average price so far this year is AUD$314/tonne. This is very similar to the same period last year. I'd suggest that the total pellet sales will be the same as a normal 1/2 year ie 1.2 million tonnes for the half year.
Whilst its impossible to know what the pellet price will be over the next 3 months, I'd suggest it isn't going lower.
Chinese Government Policies means that there is more likelihood pellet prices are going up than down.
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/SLHfJSYeUsOpkf-eIqhC6g
Valuation, page-11
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