Just wanted to put everything in a perspective here.
Shares on issue at 9 Nov 2023 - approx 615mln with options and other rights say 700mln
Stage 1 production rate about 250kta (recent interview)
Stage 1.5 production rate up to 625kta
Stage 1.5 AISC $160-180
Stage 1.5 investment $17mln
Stage 1.5 financing:
Need for funds is skewed towards later part of 2024.
Best case: free cash plus options $3.5mln plus debt up to $15mln.
Worst case: 25% dilution through equity raising, increasing shares on issue to 850mln.
Market price of phosphate A$530 per tonne, which gives about $350 per tonne margin.
PE ratio 7
Worst case scenario - we bumble along 250kta and make only $100 per tonne margin. Valuation would be (250kta x 100 - 5mln) x 7 / 700mln shares = 14c
Less the worst case - production 500kta, margin $100 per tonne. Valuation (500kta x 100 - 10mln) x 7 / 850mln shares = 33c
Fantastic case - production 625kta, margin $300 per tonne, no dilution. Valuation (625 x 300 -10mln) x 7 / 700 = $1.87
In any case company is undervalued by at least 70% to the worst case right now.
Any thoughts?
Valuation
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