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CXM centrex limited

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Rockdoctor9000

395 Posts.

66

09/11/23

11:29

Post #: 70805334
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Originally posted by Happ: ↑

Just wanted to put everything in a perspective here.

Shares on issue at 9 Nov 2023 - approx 615mln with options and other rights say 700mln

Stage 1 production rate about 250kta (recent interview)

Stage 1.5 production rate up to 625kta
Stage 1.5 AISC $160-180
Stage 1.5 investment $17mln

Stage 1.5 financing:
Need for funds is skewed towards later part of 2024.
Best case: free cash plus options $3.5mln plus debt up to $15mln.
Worst case: 25% dilution through equity raising, increasing shares on issue to 850mln.

Market price of phosphate A$530 per tonne, which gives about $350 per tonne margin.

PE ratio 7

Worst case scenario - we bumble along 250kta and make only $100 per tonne margin. Valuation would be (250kta x 100 - 5mln) x 7 / 700mln shares = 14c

Less the worst case - production 500kta, margin $100 per tonne. Valuation (500kta x 100 - 10mln) x 7 / 850mln shares = 33c

Fantastic case - production 625kta, margin $300 per tonne, no dilution. Valuation (625 x 300 -10mln) x 7 / 700 = $1.87

In any case company is undervalued by at least 70% to the worst case right now.

Any thoughts?

Expand

thats always been my rationalle for coming back to CXM aagain and again.

Decent chance of bankruptcy if anything goes wrong so bit of a gamble.

CXM Price at posting: 6.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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